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WHAT MAINTENANCE AND RELIABILITY WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE YEAR 2016 

Projection by James Huzdovich-PhD, PE, CMRP, CPE, CFEI, CVFI

The advent of new technology usually consists of many ideas that have not undergone the creative process to practicality.  So, while these new technological ideas may be feasible, no one has demonstrated that they are practical, economical, and effective.  Since the creative process requires significant resource investment, these ideas accumulate untested, but not discarded, giving rise to the expression, “ideas are a dime a dozen.”  After some period of time, like the next decade, many of these current ideas in maintenance and reliability will be exposed as “half baked” and only about 10% of all the current literature and hardware/software systems will survive.  Remember the dot-com bust of a few years ago?

The major survivors of the current idea boom will result from simplicity itself starting with those ideas that sustained fundamental, step change improvement over the past several decades.  These include Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), Total Quality Management (TQM), and Statistical Process Control (SPC).  Concepts like Enterprise Asset Management Systems (EAMS) that are driven by a first to market mindset will waste away in the maintenance and reliability world although they may continue to bedazzle upper management types interested in financial reports, not maintenance and reliability. 

The new developments that will change the face of maintenance and reliability by 2016 will come in the following areas: 

·         Enlightened management armed with better choice and judgment heuristics and a better understanding of the nature of managerial work.

·         Formalized maintenance/modification processes that will increase inherent reliability and maintainability of facility upgrade projects that will always be necessitated due to obsolescence and extreme wearout of equipment.

·         Planning and scheduling expertise that along with the formalized maintenance/modification process will drive maintenance and reliability improvement on the front end.

As a maintenance and operations evaluator for the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations in the early 1980’s, I often heard from facility management that their maintenance problems would be solved as soon as they implement their CMMS.  We all know that if you cannot do it in manual, you cannot do it in automatic.  You really have to know how to do it.  And so it goes with better hardware/software systems, better and smaller gadgets, etc., etc.  None of this will help or change anything if you don’t know how to manage the maintenance and reliability function.

Not to be underestimated in its ability to really muddy the waters, the constantly evolving automation impact on the maintenance and reliability function will continue to produce those “dime a dozen ideas” that no one will have shown to be practical, economical, and effective.  To combat that eventuality, knowledgeable practitioners will continue to keep it simple and effective by going with those methods with proven track records, especially those methods that address inherent reliability improvement and maintenance practices that preserve inherent reliability.  Automation because we can automate will continue to over promise and under deliver.

Dr. Huzdovich has over 35 years experience in the development, management, and supervision of O&M and engineering services at industrial facilities.  He has experience and expertise in the design and successful implementation of automated management systems in the government and private industry sectors.  He currently serves as the service contract manager for Raven Services Corporation at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing’s Western Currency Facility in Ft. Worth, Texas.  Dr. Huzdovich also serves as the Principal Engineer/Principal Consultant providing expert witness services in litigation matters for Forensic Action Services, LLC, in Denton, Texas.