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Reliability in 2016

Projections by R. Keith Mobley, CMRP, Reliability Principal, Life Cycle Engineering, Inc. 

There is little doubt that technology, especially in the areas of Enterprise Asset Management and Predictive Maintenance will continue to evolve over the next ten years.  EAM vendors, such as SAP, Oracle and others, will follow the evolution of microprocessors and provide systems that are more and more interactive and by the year 2016 these systems will most likely include artificial intelligence that will not only store the massive volume of data generated by business, but will also provide recommendations for business decisions based on computer generated logic and analyses.

The same is true of predictive maintenance or condition monitoring systems.  In the future, these technologies will grow to include “smart” assets that have built-in microprocessors that automatically evaluate the asset’s operating condition and generate work orders for preemptive or corrective actions.  This technology is already available in limited areas, such as process control valves, that are able to perform mandated testing and condition assessments.

So technology from the standpoint of vendors that provide information management and condition monitoring systems will be an integral part of the reliability world in the year 2016, but will these technologies be enough for American industries to compete effectively in the world market?  These new systems, as well as the production and manufacturing systems, will be more and more complex.  Who will operate and maintain them? 

The dilemma that an American company will face in the year 2016 is the poorly educated, un-motivated workforce that will be needed to operate and maintain these highly complex systems. Even today, many operators and maintenance craftsperson are struggling with current technology. Just ten years ago, a typical craftsperson was expected to read and understand about five hundreds pages of technical information, written at the eighth grade level, to maintain plant equipment.  Today, that craftsperson must read and understand five thousand pages written at undergraduate or higher level.  What will it be like in 2016? 

Combine this problem with the decline of our education system that is not providing competency in basic skills such as reading, writing and mathematics, as well as the sciences, and companies in the future face an even more daunting problem. As a result, these new technologies are a blessing and a curse.  The anticipated capabilities of the computer-based systems of tomorrow are much needed and should add value; but without the skills to use them their value is nil. 

If we are to remain a competitive force in the global market of 2016, our view of reliability must change radically.  First, reliability must expand from a simple view of predictive maintenance and the application of technologies as a means to prevent damage to installed assets to one of comprehensive Life Cycle Asset Management. This change is driven by two critical factors, as well as other forcing functions that cannot be resolved by technology.

The first factor that will force a change is the loss of a skilled workforce. For decades, American industry has relied almost exclusively on a workforce that was well trained in the skills required to design, install, operate and maintain its production and manufacturing assets. Unfortunately, our society has virtually eliminated these traits from the workforce of today and will only get worse in the future.  As a result, manufacturing companies, as well as vendors and service providers, will have to invest heavily in training and workforce development to survive in the world of 2016.  This will mandate a return to the apprenticeship programs that were prevalent in the 1950s, as well as remedial training in the basic skills that our education system is failing to provide. 

The second factor is the degradation of the basics of good business.  America achieved its premier role as the leading producer in the world by absolute adherence to sound business practices, such as product quality, fair prices, and single-point accountability throughout its workforce.  Most, if not all, of these tenants have disappeared in today’s businesses.  To survive and be competitive in 2016, American business must return to the basic tenants of good business.  These include:

Standard Operating Procedures: There is only one best way to do anything from managing a business to performing preventive maintenance.  Successful companies will return to this fundamental requirement and reinstate the use of and absolute adherence of SOPs in every facet of their operation.

Long view—not instant gratification:  We have become a nation that seeks instant, easy solutions to any and all problems. We are impatient and want immediate results rather that take the long view and make business decisions that will yield the best long-term results. 

Data-driven decisions:  Most of today’s companies have computer-based systems that store and report performance and financial data, but few use this information to make business decisions. Instead, plant and corporate management make decisions based on perception or skewed data generated by selective use of the data contained in these systems.  Without a basic change in the use of data to ensure decisions that are based on fact, nothing will change. 

Yes, in 2016 information management systems will have evolved to a level that rivals video games. We will be able to interact with these databases and extract also any level of data that we could ever ask for. Data acquisition will be simple and straightforward.  Most assets with include a “brain” that will wirelessly talk to our computer so we can know anything and everything we need to know without leaving our desk.  The only question that remains is:

Will we be capable of using the these technologies and if so, will well have the skills needed to use the gained knowledge to effectively manage a competitive business, operate the new generations of production systems; and perform sustaining levels of maintenance that will keep them running?